Leading The Elephants To The Slaughter
Considering how much attention mass media has spent on electoral politics it has missed the elephant in the room (pardon the pun): The extreme peril of the Republican Party. Almost all coverage is now on the Democratic primary, and the least likely (and most dramatic) scenarios are getting the most focus. But here is what seems most likely: The candidates fight it out, a winner emerges in the next month or so and emotions peak. Everyone takes the summer off, spends some time at the beach with a good book, and returns at the end of August tanned, rested and ready to crank up an energetic election campaign. Meanwhile, each contested state gets two industrial strength Democratic voter registration machines rolling through, extends the Democratic monopoly of the news cycle and sharpens the campaigning skills of the eventual nominee.
For Republicans, that is the bad news. The worse news is that the math this time around is horrible, and the early indications are dismal (via). They have 29 House members retiring this year, and it didn’t get that high by accident. Losing as an incumbent has to be one of the worst events for a politician; it is a rejection and a humiliation - it is the voters saying “we tried you out and found you wanting.” It also usually comes with about a ten year setback. You don’t just bounce to some more prestigious office, you either take some time off or seek refuge in an appointed position. Then you slowly begin your rehabilitation. Many Republicans think now is a good time to take a powder, and by doing so they could be viable next time. It looks similarly bad (annoying trendy word for this election: optics) in the Senate. Republicans are defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12; even if the GOP was wildly popular it would simply have to cover more territory.
I’ve saved the worst for last. The preceding can be seen as nothing more than the vagaries of the horse race, the calendar and random chance. Fortunes wax and wane, and sometimes parties succeed just because. It is like the stock market, which moves sometimes in response to specific data and sometimes for reasons that are too complex to understand. (I will have unyielding admiration for the first newscaster who has the honesty and courage to say “Stocks closed higher today. God alone knows why.”) Republicans can talk their way out of a situation like that. It is their great misfortune that it is also accompanied by the total collapse of their principles.
Republicans held all the levers of power in Washington for six years. They turned budget surpluses into huge deficits, which put pressure on the dollar. The financial industry’s house of cards got blown down and the Federal Reserve cut rates to head off a recession. That put even more pressure on the dollar. Its value sank against other currencies, and investors have taken refuge in commodities, driving those prices up. Republicans’ aggressive, swaggering foreign policy has shot uncertainty through the market, driving (dollar denominated) oil to record highs. Simply put, their policies have put us in a position where we can’t deficit spend, can’t lower prices, can’t cut rates and can’t do much to restore value to our currency. Even simpler, every time you fill up your tank or buy a loaf of bread you pay the Bush Tax.
Tom Delay was described admiringly as “The Hammer” for his ability to get Republicans to approve these policies. It was a fun party while it lasted but the bill has come due. We have structural problems that won’t go away easily or quickly, and voters have reasonably concluded which party bears the most blame. Even after they lost Congress last year they marched in lockstep behind the President as he continued a massively unpopular war. I have been very critical of the Democrats at times for not standing up to bullying from the White House, but the GOP has been far worse. They have pledged fealty to leaders dedicated to profligacy, incompetence and secrecy. They have unstintingly supported the administration’s grotesque streak of sadism (see this week’s illustration(via)), and declared themselves to be Republican before American. None of these issues will be eclipsed by manufactured talking points or trivial narratives. The effects of their governance are plainly and painfully before the country’s eyes on (literally) a daily basis, and that is not going away before November. A handful of conservatives such as Andrew Sullivan recognized the new direction and forcefully rejected it (some recent examples), and they will be the intellectual inheritors when the time comes to rebuild. The party is in the process of self-immolation, and those who stepped away in disgust have no obligation to commit Sati.
Dan
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You'd be surprised at how many people will end up disagreeing with you assessment this fall.
I take it, then, you'll be voting for the Democrat?
Add to all of the above the fundraising disparity and party identification. Mix in the under 29 voters that don't get their information (or disinformation) from fox news or newspapers (facts have a liberal bias) and it looks like a giant realignment coming this fall. Even the gerrymandering and magic voting machines won't help this cycle. While I respect anyones right to a political belief, me thinks this couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch. Peace
Section9, that's my plan at the moment. I haven't made any secret of the fact that I'm generally a liberal, but I think the Republican party and its apologists have sold out conservative principles. That has served all of us very poorly. I probably wouldn't often vote for an honest-to-God conservative Republican slate, but there would be still be recognizable benefits to it (balanced budgets, restrained government, prudent foreign policy). As it stands right now Republicans give us all the problems of Democrats with none of the positives. maybe a few more Sullivan's and abiodun's would correct that.
We can either bury our heads in the sand, or we can reclaim our party!
I couldn't have said it better myself. I joined the Republican Party in 1972 as a conscientious, moderate, libertarianish, pro business type for sensible regulation kind of guy. I was also moderately pro-choice. The claques and empty souls of the party (Fox News) who were more interested in cheap victory at any cost rather than pragmatic policy empowered the theocratic wing to exterminate folks like me. While once during the Reagan Era the Party welcomed Democrat Congressman into the fold they turned, in the Delay Era, into a party which campaigned against moderate Republican office holders in the name of ideological purity. The people they purged were the sort of folks who would have argued against much of lock step, dim wittedness that the party practiced and which this post outlines.
Much against my inclinations I've caucused with Democrats in Minnesota for the past two elections cycles. Once a McCainiac I'm now an Obamican.
The Republicans gave America an enema and now they are about to get one in return. Poetic justice. This nation needs two strong parties to keep each other in check. The Democrats will fail us again but I hope to enjoy the next couple years before the gangrene of incumbency sets in.
This was a great piece. It needs to be said as loudly and as often as possible that GWBush did not govern as a conservative. Above all, he reminds me of LBJ on spending and sheer hubris and his father for colossally poor judgment. However, should we get a President Obama and a Democratic congress, they will inevitably overreach, so people on the right need not fear total calamity. A few years in the wilderness will do the GOP some good. But to quote Jesse Jackson, we need to "stay out of the bushes" for good this time.
Harry, if a critical mass of people like you take even a one-cycle trip to the Democratic side I think you'll see an earthquake. The Rockefeller pro-business, competent management, Northeast types and Goldwater, libertarian, Mountain West types have been marginalized. If both groups show what happens when they are absent, watch out.
Interesting and thoughtful post. I agree that the Republicans have politcally bankrupted the party. The other 400 lbs gorilla in the Republican House of Shame is the rot of moral and ethical bankruptcy that has gripped many of the members of their party. I am not excusing the Democrats on this point either, but the sheer number of scandals that have come to light over the past 2 years has really turned many Americans on both sides of the aisle against the Republican brand. I truly believe the GOP has made itself irrelevant for at least the next decade. They have handed the Dems a real opportunity to drive a progressive agenda to reshape the social, economic and international image of the country as a nation of integrity, compassion and, most importantly, laws.
The brand has been so tarnished, it must change or die. If the Republicans do not use their time in the corner with the dunce cap to change these serious problems, the dodo will replace the elephant as their symbol. Bye bye, Republican party. Hello new party.
A lot of this is wishful thinking. We have had a small taste of what the McBush campaign will be like in the Rev. Wright "controversy". This will be a tough, dirty campaign full of practically overt racism and tons of fearmongering, even if Cheney doesn't attack Iran before November which is likely.
The Republicans in many parts of the country will benefit from this especially with new candidates who cannot be tied to the Bush White House but who stand for real American values instead of being closet Muslims who don't wear flag pins.
The more depressing thought however, is that even should Obama win with a clear Democratic majority in both Houses, there will be little change and little reason to hope. We will remain in Iraq and Afghanistan, the economy will still be in the tank, there will still be a trillion spent every year on the military and not enough money for education or infrastructure, we will remain utterly dependent on foreign oil, and big pharma will make sure that even the tepid Obama health plan will not be enacted.
Charles, I don't think recent campaign tactics will work this time around precisely because so many Americans are feeling the effects of Republican rule. You may be right about what happens after November though - there's a real chance that entrenched interests and inertia will prevail.
If there is one thing Americans should recognize it's that we should never ever ever again elect a Texan as President of the United States.
As a liberal Republican in the Lincoln Chafee-model, it is so hard to see what has happened to the GOP over the course of the last 10-12 years. I'll always be a registered R, but my votes from 2004 on surely don't reflect it.
Long Live Rockefeller Republicanism!
All of this makes me wonder why Ron Paul wants to remain in the Republican Party. It's like wanting to stay a Whig.
i was in the grocery store earlier today and was commiserating with a fellow shopper that stocking up was the thing to do as a hedge against rising food prices, and i mentioned to her that i thought it was an outrage that mccain's wife is refusing to release her tax returns. the woman just kind of looked at me. but then i told her mrs. mccain is worth $100 million and her jaw dropped, understanding spread across her visage. clearly the general public is not getting even basic information about mccain. i'm skeptical that the general public will ever get it. as the response from the fcc's politics department told me in response to a complaint about some recent abc broadcasts, the networks/stations are not required to tell the truth. literally. that's the position of the fcc. great country, eh?
Amen to the Sullivan trend. I have never voted for a Democrat in a Presidential Election, but am set to vote Obama in November.
I reject the neocons and theocons. Neither is conservative as neither has any comprehension of limited government, fiscal responsibility, or individual liberty.
I personally want to thank Democrats for selecting a candidate I can tip my hat to this cycle.
Add to this the fact that the youngsters (b. 1982-2003) are overwhelmingly in favor of progressive problem solving and registering 2-1 Democratic, and we have the seeds of a true realignment.
Karen, the fact that you were "commiserating with a fellow shopper that stocking up was the thing to do" is why the Republicans are in for a tough November. Cindy McCain's tax returns don't need to be publicized - the networks could say she's the second coming of Mother Teresa and it wouldn't make people forget the terrible shape we're in. That's what they'll take with them into the voting booth.
Glad to hear it, Dave. As I said in an earlier comment, if folks like you vote Democratic even one time it could cause an earthquake in the GOP.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Having witnessed such over the last 6-8 years, its seems incredibly naive of American to hand so much power back to a single party again. Only this time, it'll be with congressional margins Delay and company could only dream of.
In 6-8 years, we'll be right back where we started and the Kos of the world will be wondering how it all happened.
My protest vote won't be going to Obama as I reject just about everything on his platform. And a vote for him is a vote for Nancy Pelosi. Rather, I likely will just stay at home.